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 Post subject: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 11 Dec 2014, 09:38 
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So I know nobody here is a fortune teller, but what are the feelings on the NAFA sales? More specifically Coyotes?

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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 11 Dec 2014, 09:56 
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While we are at it, i wonder if anything has changed on coons since early fall?

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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 11 Dec 2014, 12:18 
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My son gets all of the money for coon so he can buy a vehicle when he turns 16. He is 12 now so my prediction is he will have to settle for a used Yugo when he turns 16 :cry:


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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 11 Dec 2014, 13:02 
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I got my new F,F&G yesterday (a Christmas gift sub from last year) and Gary S. quoted a NAFA guy they were thinking the first auction would be similar to last one (Sept. 2014). Chinese New Years is late this year (Feb.) which is like our Christmas and weather in n. China has been more typical but the retailers still have alot of garments on the rack so perhaps a mixed bag there. The Russian market is more troubling as their economy is tanking with the lower oil prices (makes up a big portion of the gov's treasury). Korea looks ok and eastern Europe ok as well but not gangbusters. So a mixed lot.

As for the nw MO yotes, probably more typical with what you've gotten in the past, not exceptional but probably not in the crapper as well. Most of us are hostage to the typicals of our regions. Carpcatcher, I wish you were here and could snag some of our Western Northern and Western North-Central coon and Iloveguns, I wish you could get up in get some of those Northern Plains pale yotes (we have more your kind here) but unless a guy moves....

I'll get my single NAFA bag packed Friday evening and on the truck just past 0600 Sat. morning. And then we'll see what happens in Jan. and March.

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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 11 Dec 2014, 19:14 
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Nephew sold some tues evening to a country buyer. Hes saving his returns to buy christmas, new baby and a gf. I'll post more detail later but he got $13 for a jumbo S&D coon as tops. Sold one of two yotes also S&D.. Big pale male he got during deer season he took $5 for. Flat commercial S&D yote medium he declined a $2 offer( i can tan and sell'em all day long for $20-$25). He had to do some sewing on the $5 yote or he'd kept it too. We've found that major damage or sewing impedes the tanning process. I dont even try tanning any taken with high powered rifles or deer slugs anymore, had too many slip around the damage. When they want hides for rugs they wantem perfect.

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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 13 Dec 2014, 08:05 
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Well, we're the first stop on the NAFA agent's run in SD so I dropped my single smaller bag off today. I got a chance to visit with him and his wife for a while before they left. A couple of stops in the northeast part of the state (a lot of water up there) tend to have the most guys drop off although a couple spots in western SD also have good numbers. But then again, there's only a few stops West River and if a guy has a bcat or two doing a 80-100 mile one-way run is probably worth it.

I asked what the the most unusual things that get dropped off and that tends to be guys that live in SD but go on trapping adventures elsewhere; kit and swift fox from the Desert SW, some fishers from the North Woods somewhere. I asked if they get any gray fox and they have one guy from near the Missouri River in southern SD that has dropped off a couple. I inquired about any bcats coming from the new eastern SD season that runs along 7 counties that border the MO river from south of Pierre to Vermillion and he said a couple have come from guy that located in the "elbow" turn of the river. Could be from the east side but also there's a bridge there to West River and some serious wooded breaky land in the first county across so these could be still West River bcats. The final story was about the badgers that a guy around Pierre brings in. Beautiful critters with 6 inch long back fur. I said there must be good genetics up there but he said the guys claims its from eating p. dogs (none around here so I can't test that theory) :wink: !

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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 13 Dec 2014, 08:24 
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PC in always amazed by the terrain variances in South Dakota. So your basically in the prairie part? But in northern South Dakota theres big woods(hince the fisher)? Good buddy of mine has had his fill of Illinois and is moving his retired rear end to Wyoming this spring. Hes ałready got plans for me and the ones that hunt in my family to come out and chase antelope and mule deer next fall.

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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 13 Dec 2014, 10:55 
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No, Back I'm on the crop side of the state, a lot like Illinois but with less trees around here.

South Dakota can be basically cut in half, the Missouri River being the divider. The Black Hills are an outlier. "East River" was glaciated so the land forms are smoother with more gentle river valleys. More wetlands and lakes on this side especially in the northeast quadrant (I'm in the southeast). Very little tree cover and only scattered patches of real forests. Up in the northeast there is the "Prairie des Coteau", a hilly and lake/wetland section, that had little glaciation last time around. There is the "Missouri Coteau" generally the last county or so as you get towards the big river but even some of that is pretty flat. Because of the glaciated soils, most of East River is cropped with perhaps 25% left in grass as pastures (usually too rocky or sloped to till) and wetlands, lakes, and a little bit of trees.

West River was unglaciated and had a lot of heavy "shrink/swell" clay soils that aren't good for cropping. Its also a lot drier out there so most of the land is in grasslands used as grazing land and a lot of cropland that is available grows hay, although there are "islands" of better soils where small grains are grown. There are 5 major tributaries of the Missouri that flow in from the west. They generally have broken land features around them and woods in the bottoms. The Cheyenne and one of its tribs (the Belle Forche) have a lot of eastern cedar/Rocky Mt. juniper woodlands along their side hills. There is also the big Badlands (including the national park) and scattered forest topped buttes, especially in the nw and south-central part of West River. These areas, along with the Black Hills, are where most of the SD bcats come from.

The Black Hills are a outlier as a forested montane area that is home to elk and mt. lions as well as bcats, coyotes, and deer. There are no forested areas in South Dakota that can sustain pine martin or fisher except the BH (and there may be a few there--they're both protected endangered critters in the state). The fishers I mentioned in the previous post were from guys who had gone out of state but brought their furs to the SD NAFA pick up (with the proper paperwork, along with any otters caught out of state).

An interesting twist on uncommon critters in SD is the wolf. Wolves have been removed from SD since the 1920s. Occasionally in the recent past a wolf was shot in the state and the hunter was not fined or anything but couldn't keep the pelt. But because any wolves traveling through SD fell under the Western Great Lakes population region, when the howlers were delisted a few years back and their management given over to the states of MI, WI, and MN to handle, SD officials passed a law that wolves can be legally taken in the state. Just more of them have to roam through now :mrgreen:

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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 14 Dec 2014, 19:56 
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Anyone hear price forecast/predictions for bobcats and coons for the auction houses?

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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 14 Dec 2014, 23:34 
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Amak wrote:
Anyone hear price forecast/predictions for bobcats and coons for the auction houses?

I predict they will be about the same as last year. Coons may go a little better with China back in it. I'm assuming they will be in it since they were at the September sale. My coons average in the September sale was a $2.00 better average than the May sale. My average in September was $17.50 I believe without looking. Just a prediction bro. :wink:

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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 10 Jan 2015, 08:00 
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I dropped a little bag off this morning at our 2nd NAFA pick up. There was a guy ahead of me that had at least 3 big "pillow" bags full of fur. He traps in the northern part of my county. He supposedly had called NAFA in Wis. and was told it would be better to bring fur for the second NAFA auction, although looking at the preliminary listing below, I can't see why a guy wouldn't want to have some new fur in at least both winter auctions, especially when NAFA is putting a special emphasis on how much is "fresh". This guy said he was hoping to pay for his daughter's wedding dress with his fur money. I wish him good luck!!

Fish94 is probably on the road as I write heading over to the SD NAFA's second stop which is about 60 miles north of my drop off. He probably has a good number of yote tails either sticking out the back of the bags or making one end pretty puffy. Go fish :) !!

http://www.nafa.ca/wp-content/uploads/2 ... 17-ENG.pdf

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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 10 Jan 2015, 09:12 
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Ya dropping a pile of stuff off but boy the truck isn't very full and not very many guys are here...Pc I'm prolly not as smart as you so do the math for me what percent can fur be down from a couple years ago if your paying today's gas price instead of that years gas price to make it a wash ? Get what I'm say I averaged 44 a coon that year but I paid a lot for gas.... what could it be down to still virtually be the same with today's gas price


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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 10 Jan 2015, 12:54 
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Here is the price page for one of the local buyers. Makes you wanna go catch a truck load. :mrgreen:

Water thawed fur will not have a lot of value. These rot quickly and we cannot give you a good grade. Leave all Beaver froze with no meat showing.

GREEN FURS PREFERED--Do not expect more value in dried furs at this time.

BOBCAT----Good spots, prime
XLarge $35.00
Large $30.00
Medium $15.00
The rest, damaged, ect $1.00 to $5.00.

BEAVER-----Large to X Large $8.00.
Small and Medium $4.00
Kits no value.

GREY FOX---$7.00 On large, prime and undamaged.

RED FOX----$10.00 and down.

COON---Good Color and prime
Large-XL $3.00
Medium $2.00
Rest $0.00 to $1.00

COYOTE--Good fur $5.00. Rubbed and damaged no value. Don't skin junk!

OTTER---$25.00 Large and XL Prime.
$15.00 Medium Prime.
$5.00 Small Prime.

MINK-----Male $6.00 and down. Female $3.00 and down.

POSSUM----$1.00 Medium-Large good color, green. No value on small and small black fur.

SKUNK ----No market for them at this time.

Southern Muskrat---- Many may average $2.50.

Green Beaver Caster----$15.00 lb.


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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 10 Jan 2015, 13:33 
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That makes me want to go back at it for another month :P Sad prices they are offering. Beaver castor is very low FHA is paying $50.00 per pound for #1


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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 10 Jan 2015, 14:15 
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Fish- Did you drop off in Brookings? That's their 2nd stop so yeah, not a lot in the truck. Watertown would be their 3rd stop of the morning.

To your math problem. Don't know if I'm better figuring things than you but let's just take a hypothetical example. Say your really good fur year fuel was $3.40 a gallon and your total consumption to trap was half of your take home fur check from NAFA. Now lets say your fur average for these coming auctions is half of the really good year but fuel ave. is $1.70 a gallon and is still 50% of your costs. I think you would in the same spot that you were in your really good fur price year.

Now the above example isn't reality because in the really good fur year, fuel was probably fairly stable (I think) while it would be hard to figure the average for this year as fuel costs have been dropping for 2 months. I guess if a person really wants to know for sure, they'd have to better accounting by figuring both actual amounts of fuel used and the price paid each time you filled up.

I'm enjoying the lower fuel costs but low oil prices may signal a greater slow down in the global economy with decreased demand (as well as more supply). Because most of our end-user fur buyers are foreign, I guess the auctions over the next couple of months will tell us more what's happening in the global economy...

wannab- Yeah, I think your more southern guys get hammered pretty hard by country buyers but I think country buyers in general obviously want to buy as low as they can. If you've read some of backwoodsman's comments, country buyers seem to have pagefuls of excuses why they need to mark down a person's fur. That's why I've gone to sending in to the auctions. More work involved (and I don't want to figure out my hourly rate!) but probably an overall fairer price for your fur, year in, year out.

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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 10 Jan 2015, 16:55 
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The Kopenhagen sale had very good clearances with about the same prices as the last NAFA sale. Ranch mink being so inexspensive does not help our fur. With that being said at least they are moving which should mean the same for our stuff. Could be a lot worse I suppose.

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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 10 Jan 2015, 17:15 
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the reason for my math problem is a few years ago cattle prices rose in a hurry and everyone in town is saying oh the farmers are getting rich well all that really happened because corn was high, guys paid more for calves paid more to feed um.... So you were still losing or making 25- 50 bucks a head but you were playing with larger loans for inputs


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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 10 Jan 2015, 17:23 
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Same idea with fur if I ave 44 that year it's awsome but say gas is 3.50, so say i was making 10 bucks a coon. Now this year I might get say 25 bucks a coon with cheap gas, a guy could make 10 bucks a coon. This is just an example I was curious if anyone did the math... Just depends on your input


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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 16 Jan 2015, 21:59 
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I got my F,F&G last week and found Gary Schroeder's fur price column interesting. If you read between the lines he's claiming guy's might make more selling castor from a beav this year than selling the fur (maybe it was that way last year as well). Wolf, and the other beaver masters, ever seen that before where the castor off of one or two beavs may be worth more than one nice hide??

Schroeder also said that because Russian buyers tend to be substantial players in the bcat market that the value in their hides might drop 30-40% when compared to the last few years. Might be actually good for the Western region were it seems that the pressure in many areas has been relentless with high priced fur. NAFA says a sort of similar situation may be happening with mrats as the Koreans may not be as excited this year with higher priced rats with so much cheap ranch mink. I think lower prices (along with water in our sloughs) would help mrats rebound here in se SD. Would like to see huts again across the rural landscape around here.

Here's the latest NAFA new update going into the end of the month auction. Trim trade is good, the Russian demand is good but their currency deflated, and mixed signals out of China and Korea. We'll see how it plays out starting Jan. 26...

http://www.nafa.ca/16818

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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 19 Jan 2015, 18:33 
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I heard Kansas Furharvesters had an auction and rat prices were between 3-4 dollars


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 Post subject: Re: NAFA predictions
PostPosted: 19 Jan 2015, 19:07 
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Man I hope so. They normally run about half of what NAFA brings......I could live with that!

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